German Bundesliga Outrights, Betting Tips, Predictions & Odds
Carlo Ancelloti’s Bayern Munich are on the search for a record 6th consecutive Bundesliga title ahead of the upcoming 2017/2018 season, but can Borussia Dortmund, RB Leizpig, or any other team knock the champions off their throne? Find out our thoughts below.
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Bundesliga Winners Prediction
Bayern Munich were crowned Bundesliga champions for a 5th consecutive time at the end of the 2016/2017 season and – spoilers – the Bavarians WILL win the league again this year. Carlo Ancelotti’s side finished 15 points above nearest competitors RB Leipzig (2nd) last time around and there’s just no reason why this shouldn’t happen again. Bayern may have had a bumpy pre-season, but take into consideration that the squad is learning to develop following the departure of two cornerstones of the squad – retirees Philip Lahm and Xavi Alonso. Ancelloti knows his team better than ever in his 2nd season in charge, and the additions of midfielders Corentin Tolisso, Niklas Süle and James Rodriguez add new depth to the best midfield in the league.
For us, the best way to examine the Bavarians’ chance of retaining the title is by comparing them to the competition. While RB Leipzig did, for a while, keep Bayern on their toes last season (the Red Bulls even pushed them off the top spot for three weeks in November of last year), the 2009-established side can’t realistically be expected to find that same form twice-in-a-row. Leipzig’s total investment so far this summer is less than the fee that Bayern payed for Tolisso (£36.4m) and the club will no doubt also put some focus towards their first ever shot at the UEFA Champions League.
Borussia Dortmund are, of course, also to be considered “title-contenders”, but it’s easy to see where the two sides differ. Ex-Ajax coach Petr Bosz, who took over from Thomas Tuchel over the summer, has only had the pre-season to figure out his players and get them to start understanding his footballing philosophy. While talisman striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks set to stay one more season, prodigal winger Ousmane Dembele has attracted attention and his future at BVB is less certain.
4th placed Hoffenheim proved an extremely tough side to beat last season – earning entry to the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history. However, much like United in the Premier League last season, “not losing” was nowhere near enough for them to challenge for the title, finishing 20 points short of Bayern’s final 82 point total. Other “big name” teams – Bayer Leverkusen (12th), Schalke 04 (10th), Borussia Monchengladbach (9th), Wolfsburg (16th) – also all struggled last season. Most of the former should do much better this time around, but it’s unrealistic that any of them will truly have what it takes to pressure the champions over the duration of an entire season.
Bayern Munich Over 24.5 Wins
At 4/5, a better value way to back the Bavarians this season is through the market “Bayern Munich Over 24.5 Wins”, only offered by bookmaker BetStars. Bayern Munich have won 25 or more matches in ALL of their last five seasons – winning the title in each – and Carlo Ancelotti’s win percentage has only gotten better with each club he has managed (70.59% at Bayern Munich).
Bundesliga Top Goalscorer Predictions
We correctly backed Pierre Emerick Aubameyang as top goalscorer at 5/1 last season – admittedly alongside Dortmund to win the league outright at 8/1 – but we feel Lewandowski is set to take back his crown this season. The Polish forward was just one goal short of his Dortmund-counterpart come the close of last season, and given the quality that Bayern Munich have added to their midfield over the summer, he should see even more chances in front of goal this time around.
Bundesliga Top 4 Finish Predictions
While we wrote them off as title contenders, Borussia Monchengladbach seem very decent value to challenge for a top 4 finish this season. Gladbach’s eventual 9th place finish last season came as a result of their awful start to the 2016/2017 campaign under former coach Andre Schubert. After ex-Wolfsburg coach Dieter Hecking took over the reigns in January, Borussia began to find their feet and had some of the best form in the Bundesliga for the 2nd half of the season. Problems with consistency on the road were resolved and their transfer business so far this summer has only strengthened the spine of the squad. Matthias Ginter from Dortmund is a fitting replacement for Mohammed Dahoud, who transferred in the other direction, while midfielders Vincenzo Grifo and Denis Zakaria also add quality going forward and in the middle of the park respectively.
Hoffenheim proved a hard team to beat last season and there hasn’t been an alarming amount of transfer movement away from the club over the summer – Niklas Sule’s move to Bayern Munich is the only “notable” departure from the core starting 11 – so we don’t see why Nagelsmann’s side can’t be pushing for the top 4 again. While a team like RB Leipzig may shift their focus towards a Champions League run later in the season (Leipzig qualified for the group stages directly), Hoffenheim already have a tough playoff round draw against Liverpool in mid-August, which could see 100% of their attention on their new domestic campaign earlier than expected.
Bundesliga Relegation Predictions
Hannover 96 return to the Bundesliga this season after just one year in the German 2nd tier. While Hannover bettered champions Stuttgart in both the home and away meetings between them last term, the North Germans are favourites for the drop, and Stuttgart 7th favourites, for a reason. Hannover’s strong home form was peppered with huge inconsistency on the road, even against weaker sides. As per usual, Hannover haven’t invested much into building the squad over the summer, and it’s hard to see them managing to keep afloat against much higher quality opponents going forward.
Saying that Augsburg finished three places above the relegation zone last season doesn’t sound too bad, but season-long inconsistency never saw them stray too far from danger. In fact, Augsburg won the 3rd fewest matches in the Bundesliga last season and, like Hannover, have invested very little over the summer, so we expect this trend to continue. While Augsburg are 4th favourites to get relegated with most bookies, surprising, the Bavarians are actually favourites to finish bottom with bookmaker Bwin and 2nd favourites with BetStars, which has to count for something!