Alaves have the edge in this tie having secured a 2-2 draw at the Riazor last week in the 1st Leg. It could’ve been so much better had they held on to a 2-0 advantage but a last minute Joselu strike ensured the Galicians go into this Wednesday’s 2nd leg on level terms.
With 2 away goals in the bag though Alaves will be confident. They are in excellent overall form and have gone 8 games without defeat in all competitions coming into this match. That’s a fine record for a newly promoted side and with a 10 point cushion on the relegation zone in La Liga, they are in more of a position to really target this match than their opponents who are 5 points further back and looking a bit more vulnerable. Alaves also have one more day to recover after it, given they play on Sunday as opposed to Deportivo La Coruna who host Villarreal on Saturday. So if anyone is going to rest players, it’s surely more likely to be the visitors.
Depor’s poor overall away record also points to the hosts being the more likely victors here. They may be unbeaten in 4 matches now but on the road, they’ve only won once since the start of last year and that was against a Villarreal side that rested key players and had nothing to play for. This season they’ve failed to score in 50% of their away games in all competitions and have lost 60% of them, drawing the other 40%.
That winless run is going to have to end here you sense, if they want to stay in the Copa del Rey given a low-scoring draw would see Alaves through on away goals. To some extent it’s the perfect situation for the hosts. They are not great at taking the game to their opponents and prefer to sit deep and let teams attack them before trying to counter. That half-explains why their away record is so good this season in La Liga and they’ve at times struggled at home to weaker teams, who aren’t that adventurous.
Here though the visitors simply have to score a goal, so at some point Depor will need to commit bodies forward and try to open up a strong Alaves defence that has kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 10 games. As that hunt becomes more desperate, Alaves should be able to hit them on the break and secure a goal that will win them the match on the night and the tie. Therefore, backing Alaves 0.0 Asian Handicap at 1.800 looks to offer the best value here and it looks like a very safe bet given how rarely Deportivo La Coruna win on the road.
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