Villa responded brilliantly to the challenge of a crunch derby clash with leaders Wolves on Saturday. Their 4-1 win has made life really interesting at the top end of this division, with the Molineux club suddenly being dragged back to the chasing pack. The sides between 2nd and 4th are all in great form and that certainly includes Villa, who have only dropped points on two occasions so far in 2018.
While nothing is ever totally certain in the Championship, this game feels like an absolute home banker and it’s surprising Villa aren’t shorter with the bookies. QPR have nothing left to play for really and their 1-0 win over 10-man Sunderland at the weekend has all but ended any lingering relegation worries they might have had.
Ian Holloway’s side haven’t been that impressive this season but they’ve won enough home games to keep themselves out of trouble. Holloway has given one or two youngsters a chance and appears to be planning towards next season but it’s hard to see this game ending well for them. QPR have lost 59% of their away matches this term in the Championship. The only results they’ve been getting away have tended to come against struggling sides, with their only victories coming at Burton and Birmingham.
They’ve only picked up one away point against a team currently in the top half so it’s impossible to make a case for them causing an upset here. Villa’s confidence levels will be sky high following that weekend win but there is enough experience in their ranks to ensure nobody gets too carried away.
Villa still have four points to make up on 2nd placed Cardiff and have Fulham hot on their heels too so there is no room for error here. With only one home league defeat and a 61% home win ratio this term, it’s hard to see any way that Steve Bruce’s men will slip up so backing a Home Win is surely the way to go.
It’s also worth noting that Villa are suddenly scoring lots of goals. With Jack Grealish in the form of his career and a host of midfield goal threats, Villa now average 1.67 goals per game, the 3rd best record in the Championship. That figure goes up to 1.94 at Villa Park and they’ve won all of their last three games by at least a two goal margin.
With a 42% clean sheet ratio too, it’s hard to see QPR creating much and backing Aston Villa -1.5 Asian Handicap looks good (read our Asian Handicap Guide for more on this market).
In addition going for Lewis Grabban to score anytime could be worth a punt. With 16 goals to his name, he could well end the season as the Championship’s top scorer and the striker has netted in all of Villa’s last 4 matches.
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