Brighton secured automatic promotion on Monday and in doing so ended their 34 year exile from the top flight of English football. They might have liked a bit more than 4 days to enjoy their success before heading into this game against an unpredictable Norwich side. The Canaries seem to veer from very good to very bad with each passing match and it’s hard to know how Brighton will react here either, having clinched their primary objective this season. That makes picking a winner here tough but a safer bet looks to be backing there to be goals.
Scoring goals hasn’t been a problem for Norwich this season. They average 1.77 per game, which is the joint second best goalscoring record in the Championship. Already this month they’ve hit seven past 3rd place Reading so it’s not like they are only scoring freely against the weaker sides. At home they average an outstanding 2.33 goals per game so they’ll be confident they can create chances and score goals, even against a strong and supremely confident Brighton side.
The problem for Norwich and the reason they won’t be involved in the play-offs is their dreadful defensive record. They’ve conceded 1.53 goals per game this season and only two Championship sides have conceded more. As a result, a huge 70% of their league games this term have seen over 2.5 goals scored and both teams have scored in 65% of them.
Brighton clearly have been better defensively but they haven’t always been entirely convincing at the back on the road, certainly since the turn of the year. They’ve conceded 3 goals in away matches at Huddersfield, Brentford and Nottingham Forest already in 2017 so there’s hope for Norwich and certainly issues for Chris Hughton to address as he gears his side up for Premier League football.
The Seagulls have scored 1.70 goals per game this term and have plenty of attacking quality that can exploit Norwich’s defensive problems. With 22 goals for the season and goals in 5 of his last 7 appearances, backing Glenn Murray to score anytime could be worth a punt.
Overall it should be an open game as Brighton go for the win that would seal the Championship title, while Norwich will be looking for another morale boasting win over strong opposition as they look towards next term. Therefore, backing Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score at 10/11 looks good here.
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