BMW South African Open Betting Tips & Predictions 2017
The South African Open will have a little more flare this year as the World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is in town to compete in the first European Tour event of the calendar year. An emotional Brandon Stone won this event in 2016 here at Glendower Golf Club. From a betting perspective it certainly pays to stick to the home golfers, for instance Gary Player won this tournament a staggering 13 times between 1956 and 1981.
South African players have won 13 of the last 20 renewals so the statistics tell us that backing Rory McIlroy this week at 5/2 or 9/4 is terrible value. He may well go on to win as he is a world class player but this is his first tournament of the year so he might be a bit rusty. What this does is it offers us some cracking each way value so read on for our expert analysis and three selections.
Multiple winners of this event is not a rare sight as Gary Player, Ernie Els and Trevor Immelman have shown us over the years. Why can’t Brandon Stone do the same? The 23 year old is the hottest prospect to come out of South Africa over the past few years and he won this very event on this very course last year. He ended his 2016 campaign with victory in the Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek so comes here brimming with confidence.
The reports from his first practise round are very promising as he carded a 61 in practise on Monday, WOW. If he can reproduce anything like that between Thursday and Sunday, he will take a hell of a lot of beating. He comes here at the top of his game, defending champion, crowd behind him, so the 16/1 on offer looks massive when you compare his price to McIlroy.
This South African is one of the most frustrating players on tour from a betting perspective. He can show flashes of brilliance and can just as easily squander a great opportunity from a nothing situation. He wasn’t blessed with the prettiest of swings but it works for him. His sole success on the European Tour came in the 2012 Avantha Masters but we think he is capable of challenging on home soil this week if he brings his A-game.
There are reasons why we should be optimistic about his chances. Firstly, he arrives here off the back of a solid T10 performance in Hong Kong. Secondly, he finished T2 in this event three years ago so he has previous course form. He carded a final round 65 that day to fly up the leaderboard. He made the cut the past two years but was nowhere near challenging so obviously he comes with his risks but at the prices he looks well worth a bet.
Edoardo has been living in his brother Franceso’s shadow for the last few years. Back between 2007 and 2010 there was very little between the Italian duo talent wise but sadly Edoardo lost a lot of confidence in his game and has suffered the consequences since. He won two European Tour events in 2010, the Scottish Open and Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles but he has not tasted success since. So, why does this make him a reasonable bet this week?
Well, there is hope. In 2014, he finished T7 in the Open Championship in a year where he played really well without winning. He was also 2nd in the Irish Open and T4 in the Welsh Open. 2015 and 2016 were fruitless for Edoardo but he played the best golf he has probably played for two years in Hong Kong last month where he finished T14. He would have been inside the Top 5 comfortably but for a poor final round of 71. If he can build on that performance, he could be a dark horse for the South African Championship, an event he was T4 in back in 2009.