Italian Open Betting Tips & Predictions
After hitting good form in recent weeks with two handsome winners of 66/1 and 66/1 on the European Tour, we feel confident that the next winner is just around the corner. We have made over £2,300 profit in 2017 on our Outright tips from just £5 E/W on each selection, beats the banks!
Often in golf a winner can experience something of a lull after being crowned champion, but we’re determined to make sure the same doesn’t happen to the FST golf tips. We’re putting all our efforts into the Italian Open.
This event has been a bastion of the circuit for the best part of 75 years, and while it has been dotted around the country, it appears to have settled on its current home of Golf Club Milano in, yes you guessed it, Milan.
The event was held here last year and the year prior, and witnessed a quite remarkable meltdown from Martin Kaymer here in 2015. He should have bagged the ‘WIN’ with ease, but an awful Sunday allowed the previously unheralded Rikard Karlberg, his maiden tour victory.
We won’t be backing Karlberg this week in a hurry, but funnily enough, this event has a habit of throwing up curveball winners, as this rogues gallery attests, however local boy Francesco Molinari won it last year:
2016 – Francesco Molinari (-22)
2015 – Rikard Karlberg (-19)
2014 – Hennie Otto (-20)
2013 – Julien Quesne (-12)
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (-24)
2011 – Robert Rock (-21)
Bar Molinari, none of these other five guys, with all the will in the world, has quite set the European Tour alight, and what it means for punters is that this tournament is wide open. A Swede, a South African, a Frenchman, a Spaniard and an Englishman, and all priced at 50/1 or greater if you leave Francesco out of the equation; that’s food for thought.
Karlberg’s winning score of -19 in 2015 and Molinari’s -22 last year highlights that this is a scorer’s track, so birdies – and lots of them – are the order of the day.
A Par 71 with a 7,156 yardage, the Golf Club Milano was designed by James Peter Gannon and opened its doors for the first time in 1928. Many of the original features are still in place, including tight, tree-lined fairways and small Bentgrass greens that ran pretty slowly in 2015.
But even with the cramped conditions, scoring was a free-for-all and that is because of the lack of any real penalty when veering off course. The rough was low if nearly non-existent, and accuracy off the tee was all but irrelevant: as proven by Karlberg’s ranking of 63rd for this stat.
The Swede wasn’t particularly long either as he ranked 45th for Driving Distance, so instead we’re looking for GIR merchants who can scramble well; Karlberg ranked ninth for GIR (Kaymer was first) and made all of his sand saves.
English young gun Matthew Fitzpatrick has to be right at the head of proceedings for us this week. This course is perfect for his game and he was 3rd here on his course debut two years ago. He followed that up with a 16th place finish here last year and as he matures as a player and gains more experience around here, it’s only a matter of time before he wins the title. He was victorious in the Omega European Masters in September and has followed that up with two Top 20 finishes in the British Masters and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. The lad arrives here in superb form and will be full of confidence so is a bet for us this weekend.
Romain is a player who has slipped under the radar from a betting perspective this week and realistically should be 33/1 – 40/1 on my book so the available 80/1 looks enormous. He has finished in the Top 11 in this event three times in the last four seasons and won the KLM Open last month in the Netherlands, which was an enormous boost to his confidence as he has battled with his game in recent years. He posted another solid T15 finish in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at the weekend and is a must bet each way at these fancy prices.
Outsiders have a good record in this event and this week we are going to take a stab on the talented Portuguese player Ricardo Gouveia. Although he did miss the cut here last season, he is a very streaky player and blows very hot and cold. He is only 26 so is very young in golfing terms and he caught my eye in his native Portugal Masters last month where he posted an impressive final round of 65 to finish in the Top 5. If he is on song, he could well surprise a few around a course that will suit his game and strengths.