Valero Texas Open Betting Tips & Predictions 2017
This week the PGA Tour rolls onto Texas or the aptly-named Valero Texas Open, where there is no obvious standout winner. The head of the market is grouped between 20/1 and 28/1, and while there are major winners in amongst them, none really demands backing without delay. Food for thought for punters.
Our hosts for the week will be TPC San Antonio, ranked as the most difficult Par 72 course on the tour back in 2011, and this has been reflected in the often gutsy test that it offers. Add in Texas’ classic windy conditions, and there’s no surprise to learn that four of the last six winners have been complete outsiders, priced 100/1 or greater. This event has a feeling of a lottery about it.
The 2016 champion, Charley Hoffman, will defend his crown, while perennial underachiever Matt Kuchar will be looking to build on a decent performance at the Masters and heads the betting this week. Former Open winner Zach Johnson and enfant terrible Patrick Reed are also in the mix.
What Are We Looking For?
Frustratingly, there is no obvious statistical inference to be made. A couple of renewals of this tournament were held in the week prior to The Masters in years gone by, and so there the course was set up very differently to how it will be this week.
But a look at Jimmy Walker’s resume from the 2015 event reveals that he ranked top five for Driving Distance and first for Strokes Gained: Putting and GIR. The Driving Distance leader, Dustin Johnson, also finished sixth overall. With tough Bermuda rough flanking the fairways, Driving Accuracy is also a factor, as players won’t want to be playing out of the thick stuff.
Windy conditions are expected this week in patches, so a comfort in getting stuck in – with a low ball flight – are also worth considering. Previous good performances at similarly breezy stretches, think the Sony Open and the OHL Classic, are a bonus.
Produced the best golf of his season in The Masters at Augusta last week to finish in a tie for 7th place, cracking effort on an extremely tough golf course. A final round of 68 was mighty impressive and that will give him a huge amount of confidence as we head to Texas this week. He plays well around here – 4th last year and 2nd in 2011. He’s not one of the more prolific players on Tour but he’s a fine player and warrants a lot of respect this week.
Event Form: 4th, 66th, MC, 15th, WD, 2nd, MC
I am not a big fan of Keegan, he annoys me. His twitch bugs the hell out of me and I find it hard to watch him. However, he is a very good golfer, a major winner and although he has been very inconsistent the past few years, he looks a good each way bet this week. He didn’t qualify for the Masters so comes here fresh off the back of an OK performance in the RBC Heritage, T-44. He knows how to hit a low ball flight really well, which is why I like him around here. May surprise a few.
Event Form: 37th, 9th
Without doubt this player is massively overpriced this week and hopefully we can make the bookies pay in bucket loads. He is yet to win on the PGA Tour but all of his best performances have come right here in this event. His best finish of the season was T-10 in the Phoenix Open but he has been in the Top 13 in all of his last four visits to Texas and that bodes extremely well this week. He loves this course, it sets up perfectly for his game and this is the place where he can shed his maiden tag.
Event Form: 13th, 4th, 2nd, 7th, 29th, MC