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Serie A Relegation Betting: 16/1 Strugglers Tipped for the Drop

Serie A may have an incredible fight for Italy’s final Champions League spots, but there’s a growing scrap at the bottom. The relegation battle hasn’t been the headline in Italy this term, but we’re seeing a perfect storm which has left us with a dramatic finale. With two games to go, there are still six sides who could fall into the bottom three. That even includes Fiorentina.

While we’re unlikely to see a seven-way fight on the final day, the final relegation spot is set to go down to the wire. Can Empoli pull off a great escape? Will a top side like Fiorentina really slip into Serie B? Just where will the survival race be decided? Here we’re answering these questions, while we’ve got the latest betting odds on the relegation race in Italy.

The Outsiders

There are three teams on 40 points, which you’d expect to be enough to stay up. However, they are only five points clear of the drop going into the last two games. That trio includes Cagliari, Bologna and Fiorentina. They are all unfancied for the drop, as they can be found at 150/1, 500/1 and 1000/1 respectively.

However, it’s telling that Bologna are twice the price of Fiorentina – one of Italy’s grand old clubs. Fiorentina face winnable games in their final two – much easier clashes than Bologna’s run-in – but la Viola haven’t won in their last 14 games. After losing five on the spin, they’re set to end the season in turmoil. They should be safe with two games to go, but if the season was any longer their relegation odds would be much, much shorter.

Empoli

Remaining Fixtures: Torino (H), Inter (A)

The side currently in 18th are Empoli, newly promoted from Serie B last season. The Azzurri are no strangers to final day drama, they went down in 2017 after a surprise rally saved Crotone on the final day. That left Empoli facing a year in the second tier, largely because they didn’t score enough goals. In their year away they reinvented themselves, which has seen them fight for survival this season in a thrilling, attacking style.

The Azzurri have scored plenty of goals this term, while they’ve been able to take anyone on at their own ground. It was their away form that left them in trouble, but this weekend saw Empoli win 2-1 at Sampdoria. That success has left them just a point off safety. They do have tricky clashes against sides with European ambitions, but they’ve shown an ability to shock before this term. While they’re 4/11 favourites for the drop, Empoli are by no means out of it.

Genoa

Remaining Fixtures: Cagliari (H), Fiorentina (A)

A wild season has left Genoa as the team in trouble in Serie A. They come into this clash with just a point between them and the drop. They’ve had three managers already this term, while it’s a surprise there hasn’t been more. After sacking the successful Davide Ballardini in October, they took their season off the rails by appointing Ivan Juric. He failed to last two months in his third spell as boss before former Italy manager Cesare Prandelli took charge in December.

Prandelli has been linked with the sack recently, having failed to win any of their last eight games. Usually, Genoa make a change to produce a reaction from their players, but this situation has coasted to the point that they’re on the fringe of the drop zone. After over two years of struggling in Serie A, this could well be the year they do gown.

Parma

Remaining Fixtures: Fiorentina (H), Roma (A)

A season which looked so promising for Parma is collapsing in calamitous fashion. The club which roared into the hearts of many during the mid-90s boom in Italy are only just back in the top flight. Financial problems knocked them into the fourth tier, but last season they won promotion from Serie B. They took that momentum and made themselves a top half side before an awful slump pushed them into the relegation mire.

Parma made up for poor home form with away results early on, but of late they’ve failed to win in nine matches. Finishing the season away at Roma is a huge test, especially given their eight-game winless streak on the road. With little sign of their form turning, they are 5/1 with bet365 for the drop, making them second-favourites, but still incredible value with two games to play.

Udinese

Remaining Fixtures: SPAL (H), Cagliari (A)

Despite being just two points clear of the drop, Udinese are a massive 16/1 to go down this term. They are seen to have favourable clashes with SPAL and Cagliari to come, but that is questionable. SPAL have been one of the best performing Italian sides over recent weeks – they’re ahead of Juventus, Roma and both Milan clubs in the form table.

Lose that clash, then Udinese need a win at a Cagliari side who are a tough nut to crack at home. Making the trip to Sardinia is never easy, with Cagliari’s record against bottom half clubs speaking volumes. In eight home clashes with bottom half sides, Cagliari have won seven and drawn one. Only Juventus and Lazio have won there in the last three months, with Cagliari winning five of seven at home in that time.

Udinese won at a poor Frosinone side at the weekend, but that’s not enough to save them. They’ve claimed five of their seven home wins against teams from 13th down, while SPAL are climbing towards the top half. With their only away wins this term coming at the bottom two Udinese are in bigger danger than the odds suggest. Their price of 16/1 with bet365 is worth considering because they are in for a difficult finish.

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