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England Championship | Villa Park | 27th May
Aston Villa badge
Aston Villa
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
KO 15:00
Derby badge
Derby
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Aston Villa vs Derby predictions ahead of the Championship playoff final at Wembley Stadium on Monday. Who will win the richest game in club football and claim promotion to the Premier League? Read on for our Championship playoff final predictions, match preview and free betting tips.  Claim one of our free bets to bet on the Championship playoff final!

Aston Villa vs Derby Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
Aston Villa to Win @ 6/5

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
Aston Villa 2-0 @ 10/1

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
Conor Hourihane To Score Anytime @ 5/1

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
Aston Villa to Win and Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 4/1

Reason For Aston Villa vs Derby Betting Tips

Derby broke 30 years of tradition and the hearts of the Leeds faithful at Elland Road in the playoff semi-finals, winning 4-2 to overturn their first-leg defeat. It was the first time a Championship side won a playoff semi-final after losing the home leg, with the Rams going down 1-0 to Leeds at Pride Park days earlier. They take on Aston Villa in Monday’s playoff final at Wembley, following the Villains’ penalty shootout victory over West Brom. Can the Rams build on that thrilling win to claim promotion, or will Villa’s brilliant end to the season take them to the top flight?

Derby sit just 90 minutes away from the Premier League, despite only booking their playoff place on the final day. They had to beat West Brom 3-1 at Pride Park to secure sixth, following an inconsistent first year under Frank Lampard. The Derby manager is hoping to end his first campaign in the dugout with promotion, but he has to cross a familiar face to do it. Lampard squares off with former Chelsea teammate John Terry at Wembley, with the former England captain now assistant manager of Aston Villa.

Aston Villa’s promotion bid is built on two turnarounds, the first of which came when Dean Smith and Terry arrived at the club in October when Villa were 15th. They were instantly improved by the former Brentford boss, but a lull in early 2019 saw them slip back down the table. In the last couple of months of the season, Villa sparked a turnaround. Jack Grealish returned from injury, inspiring Villa to a 4-0 victory over Derby, which kicked off a 10-match winning streak that took them into the top five. With 11 wins and just two defeats since the start of March, Villa are the favourites to win at Wembley.

Villa are worthy favourites for success, having beaten Derby 7-0 on aggregate across their two meetings this term. Villa were clear winners in those clashes in terms of Expected Goals, as they had an xG of 2.2 in their clash at Villa Park, compared to Derby’s 0.14. The Rams’ xG came in less than one in the previous meeting, while Villa’s xG was 2.77. That could be crucial here, as playoff finals tend to be quite tight. The previous six have each seen under 2.5 goals scored.

Recent history also doesn’t favour the Rams in this clash. Not only have they been poor against Villa this term, but this is their eighth attempt at Premier League promotion through the playoffs, but they’ve only achieved it once – 12 years ago. In the last 13 seasons, only once has the sixth-placed finisher won the playoffs, while three of the last four finals have been won by the side who finished highest in the league. Villa come here with form, while they seem best placed to win this clash and claim promotion. We’re backing Villa to win in 90 minutes, while we’re also going with Villa and under 2.5 goals, given the low-scoring nature of playoff finals.

One man to watch here is Conor Hourihane, who scored a fantastic goal against West Brom in the first leg of their semi-final. He has eight goals from midfield this term, 25% of which came against Derby. The Irishman scored in the home and away victories over the Rams, so we think he’s great value to score at Wembley.

In-Play Pointers

  • Villa have scored in 14 of their last 15 matches at this level.
  • The Rams conceded 63% of their goals last term away from Pride Park.
  • In the regular season, Derby were behind at the break on 10 occasions, going on to lose eight of them.
  • Villa were able to win 11 of the 15 games in which they were leading at half-time this season.
  • Derby conceded the first goal in 58% of their away Championship trips this term.
  • In the games when Derby conceded first, 42% of those goals came in the opening 15 minutes.
  • Aston Villa scored the opening goal in 24 games this term – 75% of those came in the first half, 70% came in the opening half hour.
  • In the last 10 playoff finals, 76% of the total goals scored came in the first half.

Aston Villa Team News

Aston Villa Team Badge Villa have been faithful to their 4-1-4-1 system. That kind of approach seems well suited for this huge game.

Derby Team News

Derby Team Badge A red card for Scott Malone against Leeds rules him out of the playoff final. Craig Forsyth and Ashley Cole are in contention to come in.

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Article by: Aaron R
Contact: [email protected]
Twitter: @aaron_rogan
Published: May 25, 2019

Our match preview predictions are fully researched and provided in good faith but no profits are guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly, you should only ever gamble with money you can afford to lose. Visit our responsible gambling guidelines for more information. 18+

Form Summary

Aston Villa badge Derby badge
Overall
PWDL
46201610
Home
231184
Away
23986
Overall
PWDL
46201412
Home
231373
Away
23779

Recent Competition Form

Aston Villa badge Derby badge
1-0 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
L
2-4 v Leeds United (A)
W
2-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
0-1 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-2 v Norwich City (H)
L
3-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
1-1 v Leeds United (A)
D
1-1 v Swansea City (A)
D
1-0 v Millwall (H)
W
0-2 v Bristol City (A)
W
0-2 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
W
2-0 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
W
2-1 v Bristol City (H)
W
2-2 v Birmingham City (A)
D
1-2 v Rotherham United (A)
W
4-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
1-3 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
2-0 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
L
2-1 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
W
3-3 v Brentford (A)
D
3-0 v Middlesbrough (H)
W
6-1 v Rotherham United (H)
W
1-3 v Nottingham Forest (A)
W
0-0 v Stoke City (H)
D
0-1 v Birmingham City (A)
W
1-1 v Sheffield Wednesday (H)
D
4-0 v Derby County (H)
W
2-1 v Wigan Athletic (H)
W
1-1 v Stoke City (A)
D
4-0 v Aston Villa (A)
L
0-2 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
L
1-0 v Nottingham Forest (A)
L
1-0 v Brentford (A)
L
0-1 v Millwall (H)
L
3-3 v Sheffield United (H)
D
1-1 v Ipswich Town (A)
D
0-0 v Reading (A)
D
2-0 v Hull City (H)
W
2-1 v Ipswich Town (H)
W
0-0 v Preston North End (A)
D
2-2 v Hull City (H)
D
2-1 v Reading (H)
W
3-0 v Wigan Athletic (A)
L
2-0 v Leeds United (A)
L
2-2 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
D
1-1 v Middlesbrough (H)
D
1-1 v Preston North End (A)
D
3-4 v Norwich City (A)
W
0-1 v Swansea City (A)
W
3-1 v Sheffield United (A)
L
2-3 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-1 v Bristol City (H)
D
2-2 v Stoke City (H)
D
0-0 v Nottingham Forest (H)
D
2-2 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
D
0-1 v Wigan Athletic (A)
W
0-3 v Middlesbrough (A)
W
2-1 v Swansea City (H)
W
5-5 v Nottingham Forest (H)
D
2-1 v Stoke City (A)
L
4-2 v Birmingham City (H)
W
1-2 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
0-3 v Derby County (A)
W
0-3 v Aston Villa (H)
L
2-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
3-1 v Birmingham City (H)
W
1-0 v Queens Park Rangers (A)
L
1-1 v Middlesbrough (A)
D
2-1 v Norwich City (A)
L
1-4 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
W
1-0 v Swansea City (H)
W
2-1 v Sheffield United (H)
W
2-1 v Millwall (A)
L
1-1 v Queens Park Rangers (A)
D
3-3 v Preston North End (H)
D
1-1 v Norwich City (H)
D
1-1 v Bristol City (A)
D
1-0 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
L
1-2 v Sheffield Wednesday (H)
L
3-1 v Brentford (H)
W
2-0 v Rotherham United (H)
W
0-0 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
D
1-1 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
D
1-0 v Rotherham United (A)
L
4-1 v Sheffield United (A)
L
1-2 v Hull City (A)
W
1-1 v Reading (H)
D
2-0 v Preston North End (H)
W
2-2 v Brentford (H)
D
2-0 v Ipswich Town (H)
W
1-1 v Ipswich Town (A)
D
2-1 v Millwall (A)
L
3-2 v Wigan Athletic (H)
W
1-4 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-3 v Hull City (A)
W
1-2 v Reading (A)
W
84Goals Scored73
63Goals Conceded57
29/48 (60%)Over 2.5 Goals23/48 (48%)
31/48 (65%)Both Teams Scored28/48 (58%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
2-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
0-1 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-2 v Norwich City (H)
L
3-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
1-0 v Millwall (H)
W
2-0 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
W
2-1 v Bristol City (H)
W
4-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
2-1 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
W
6-1 v Rotherham United (H)
W
3-0 v Middlesbrough (H)
W
0-0 v Stoke City (H)
D
4-0 v Derby County (H)
W
1-1 v Sheffield Wednesday (H)
D
0-2 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
L
2-1 v Wigan Athletic (H)
W
3-3 v Sheffield United (H)
D
0-1 v Millwall (H)
L
2-1 v Ipswich Town (H)
W
2-0 v Hull City (H)
W
2-2 v Hull City (H)
D
2-1 v Reading (H)
W
2-2 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
D
1-1 v Middlesbrough (H)
D
2-3 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-1 v Bristol City (H)
D
2-2 v Stoke City (H)
D
0-0 v Nottingham Forest (H)
D
5-5 v Nottingham Forest (H)
D
2-1 v Swansea City (H)
W
4-2 v Birmingham City (H)
W
0-3 v Aston Villa (H)
L
2-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
3-1 v Birmingham City (H)
W
1-0 v Swansea City (H)
W
2-1 v Sheffield United (H)
W
3-3 v Preston North End (H)
D
1-1 v Norwich City (H)
D
1-2 v Sheffield Wednesday (H)
L
3-1 v Brentford (H)
W
2-0 v Rotherham United (H)
W
0-0 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
D
1-1 v Reading (H)
D
2-0 v Preston North End (H)
W
2-2 v Brentford (H)
D
2-0 v Ipswich Town (H)
W
3-2 v Wigan Athletic (H)
W
1-4 v Leeds United (H)
L
52Goals Scored40
37Goals Conceded21
18/24 (75%)Over 2.5 Goals11/24 (46%)
17/24 (71%)Both Teams Scored13/24 (54%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
1-0 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
L
2-4 v Leeds United (A)
W
1-1 v Leeds United (A)
D
1-1 v Swansea City (A)
D
0-2 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
W
0-2 v Bristol City (A)
W
1-2 v Rotherham United (A)
W
2-2 v Birmingham City (A)
D
1-3 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
2-0 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
L
1-3 v Nottingham Forest (A)
W
3-3 v Brentford (A)
D
0-1 v Birmingham City (A)
W
4-0 v Aston Villa (A)
L
1-1 v Stoke City (A)
D
1-0 v Nottingham Forest (A)
L
1-0 v Brentford (A)
L
1-1 v Ipswich Town (A)
D
0-0 v Reading (A)
D
0-0 v Preston North End (A)
D
3-0 v Wigan Athletic (A)
L
2-0 v Leeds United (A)
L
1-1 v Preston North End (A)
D
3-4 v Norwich City (A)
W
0-1 v Swansea City (A)
W
3-1 v Sheffield United (A)
L
2-2 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
D
0-1 v Wigan Athletic (A)
W
0-3 v Middlesbrough (A)
W
2-1 v Stoke City (A)
L
0-3 v Derby County (A)
W
1-2 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
1-0 v Queens Park Rangers (A)
L
1-1 v Middlesbrough (A)
D
2-1 v Norwich City (A)
L
1-4 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
W
2-1 v Millwall (A)
L
1-1 v Queens Park Rangers (A)
D
1-1 v Bristol City (A)
D
1-0 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
L
1-1 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
D
1-0 v Rotherham United (A)
L
4-1 v Sheffield United (A)
L
1-2 v Hull City (A)
W
1-1 v Ipswich Town (A)
D
2-1 v Millwall (A)
L
1-3 v Hull City (A)
W
1-2 v Reading (A)
W
32Goals Scored33
26Goals Conceded36
11/24 (46%)Over 2.5 Goals12/24 (50%)
14/24 (58%)Both Teams Scored15/24 (63%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
1-0 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
L
2-4 v Leeds United (A)
W
2-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
0-1 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-2 v Norwich City (H)
L
3-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
1-1 v Leeds United (A)
D
1-1 v Swansea City (A)
D
1-0 v Millwall (H)
W
0-2 v Bristol City (A)
W
0-2 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
W
2-0 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
W
2-1 v Bristol City (H)
W
2-2 v Birmingham City (A)
D
1-2 v Rotherham United (A)
W
4-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
1-3 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
2-0 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
L
2-1 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
W
3-3 v Brentford (A)
D
16Goals Scored21
9Goals Conceded12
6/10 (60%)Over 2.5 Goals5/10 (50%)
7/10 (70%)Both Teams Scored5/10 (50%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
2-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
0-1 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-2 v Norwich City (H)
L
3-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
1-0 v Millwall (H)
W
2-0 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
W
2-1 v Bristol City (H)
W
4-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
2-1 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
W
6-1 v Rotherham United (H)
W
3-0 v Middlesbrough (H)
W
0-0 v Stoke City (H)
D
4-0 v Derby County (H)
W
1-1 v Sheffield Wednesday (H)
D
0-2 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
L
2-1 v Wigan Athletic (H)
W
3-3 v Sheffield United (H)
D
0-1 v Millwall (H)
L
2-1 v Ipswich Town (H)
W
2-0 v Hull City (H)
W
20Goals Scored20
11Goals Conceded6
8/10 (80%)Over 2.5 Goals4/10 (40%)
6/10 (60%)Both Teams Scored4/10 (40%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
1-0 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
L
2-4 v Leeds United (A)
W
1-1 v Leeds United (A)
D
1-1 v Swansea City (A)
D
0-2 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
W
0-2 v Bristol City (A)
W
1-2 v Rotherham United (A)
W
2-2 v Birmingham City (A)
D
1-3 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
2-0 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
L
1-3 v Nottingham Forest (A)
W
3-3 v Brentford (A)
D
0-1 v Birmingham City (A)
W
4-0 v Aston Villa (A)
L
1-1 v Stoke City (A)
D
1-0 v Nottingham Forest (A)
L
1-0 v Brentford (A)
L
1-1 v Ipswich Town (A)
D
0-0 v Reading (A)
D
0-0 v Preston North End (A)
D
13Goals Scored13
7Goals Conceded16
3/10 (30%)Over 2.5 Goals4/10 (40%)
5/10 (50%)Both Teams Scored5/10 (50%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
1-0 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
L
2-4 v Leeds United (A)
W
2-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
0-1 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-2 v Norwich City (H)
L
3-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
1-1 v Leeds United (A)
D
1-1 v Swansea City (A)
D
1-0 v Millwall (H)
W
0-2 v Bristol City (A)
W
5Goals Scored10
5Goals Conceded5
2/5 (40%)Over 2.5 Goals2/5 (40%)
3/5 (60%)Both Teams Scored3/5 (60%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
2-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
0-1 v Leeds United (H)
L
1-2 v Norwich City (H)
L
3-1 v West Bromwich Albion (H)
W
1-0 v Millwall (H)
W
2-0 v Queens Park Rangers (H)
W
2-1 v Bristol City (H)
W
4-0 v Bolton Wanderers (H)
W
2-1 v Blackburn Rovers (H)
W
6-1 v Rotherham United (H)
W
8Goals Scored15
5Goals Conceded3
4/5 (80%)Over 2.5 Goals3/5 (60%)
4/5 (80%)Both Teams Scored2/5 (40%)
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
1-0 v West Bromwich Albion (A)
L
2-4 v Leeds United (A)
W
1-1 v Leeds United (A)
D
1-1 v Swansea City (A)
D
0-2 v Bolton Wanderers (A)
W
0-2 v Bristol City (A)
W
1-2 v Rotherham United (A)
W
2-2 v Birmingham City (A)
D
1-3 v Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W
2-0 v Blackburn Rovers (A)
L
8Goals Scored9
4Goals Conceded7
2/5 (40%)Over 2.5 Goals2/5 (40%)
3/5 (60%)Both Teams Scored3/5 (60%)
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Head To Head

Aston Villa badge
WonDrawnWon
321
Derby badge
9
Goals Scored
3
Over 2.5 Goals 2/6 (33%)
Both Teams To Score 1/6 (17%)
Previous Meetings (Last 6)
02.03.19 Aston Villa Aston Villa badge 4-0 Derby County badge Derby County
10.11.18 Derby County Derby County badge 0-3 Aston Villa badge Aston Villa
28.04.18 Aston Villa Aston Villa badge 1-1 Derby County badge Derby County
16.12.17 Derby County Derby County badge 2-0 Aston Villa badge Aston Villa
25.02.17 Aston Villa Aston Villa badge 1-0 Derby County badge Derby County
20.08.16 Derby County Derby County badge 0-0 Aston Villa badge Aston Villa
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League Table

PosTeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Norwich City46271369357+3694
1Birmingham City461419136458+661
2Sheffield United46261197841+3789
3Leeds United48268147654+2286
4West Bromwich Albion482411138964+2583
5Aston Villa482116118463+2179
6Derby County482114137357+1677
7Middlesbrough462013134941+873
8Bristol City461913145953+670
9Nottingham Forest461715146154+766
10Swansea City461811176562+365
11Brentford461713167359+1464
12Sheffield Wednesday461616146062-264
13Hull City461711186668-262
14Preston North End461613176767061
15Blackburn Rovers461612186469-560
16Stoke City461122134552-755
18Wigan Athletic461313205164-1352
19Queens Park Rangers46149235371-1851
20Reading461017194966-1747
21Millwall461014224864-1644
22Rotherham United46816225283-3140
23Bolton Wanderers4688302978-4932
24Ipswich Town46516253677-4131
PosTeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sheffield United2315444217+2549
2Norwich City2315445134+1749
3Brentford2314455023+2746
4West Bromwich Albion2413745431+2346
5Derby County2413744021+1946
6Leeds United2414464025+1546
7Aston Villa2412845237+1544
8Nottingham Forest2313463421+1343
9Swansea City2312654228+1442
10Wigan Athletic2311842920+941
11Hull City2311663724+1339
12Sheffield Wednesday2310853427+738
13Blackburn Rovers2310763221+1137
14Middlesbrough2310672317+636
15Preston North End2381054130+1134
16Stoke City238962624+233
17Birmingham City2371153124+732
18Bristol City238872826+232
19Queens Park Rangers2393113331+230
20Millwall237972627-130
21Reading238692931-230
22Rotherham United237883238-629
23Ipswich Town2331192231-920
24Bolton Wanderers2344151335-2216
PosTeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Norwich City2312924223+1945
2Sheffield United2311753624+1240
3Leeds United2412483629+740
4Bristol City2311573127+438
5West Bromwich Albion2411493533+237
6Middlesbrough2310762624+237
7Aston Villa249873226+635
8Derby County248793336-331
9Birmingham City237883334-129
10Preston North End2383122637-1127
11Sheffield Wednesday236892635-926
12Nottingham Forest2341182733-623
13Swansea City2365122334-1123
14Hull City2365122944-1523
15Blackburn Rovers2365123248-1623
16Stoke City2331371928-922
17Queens Park Rangers2356122040-2021
18Brentford2339112336-1318
19Reading23211102035-1517
20Bolton Wanderers2344151643-2716
21Millwall2335152237-1514
22Wigan Athletic2325162244-2211
23Rotherham United2318142045-2511
24Ipswich Town2325161446-3211

Scores Vs Opponents

PosTeamHomeAway
1Norwich City1-22-1
1Birmingham City4-20-1
2Sheffield United3-34-1
3Leeds United2-31-1
4West Bromwich Albion2-11-0
5Aston VillaN/AN/A
6Derby County27th May0-3
7Middlesbrough3-00-3
8Bristol City2-11-1
9Nottingham Forest5-51-3
10Swansea City1-00-1
11Brentford2-21-0
12Sheffield Wednesday1-21-3
13Hull City2-21-3
14Preston North End3-31-1
15Blackburn Rovers2-11-1
16Stoke City2-21-1
18Wigan Athletic3-23-0
19Queens Park Rangers2-21-0
20Reading1-10-0
21Millwall1-02-1
22Rotherham United2-01-2
23Bolton Wanderers2-00-2
24Ipswich Town2-11-1
PosTeamHomeAway
1Norwich City1-13-4
1Birmingham City3-12-2
2Sheffield United2-13-1
3Leeds United0-12-4
4West Bromwich Albion3-11-4
5Aston Villa0-327th May
6Derby CountyN/AN/A
7Middlesbrough1-11-1
8Bristol City1-10-2
9Nottingham Forest0-01-0
10Swansea City2-11-1
11Brentford3-13-3
12Sheffield Wednesday1-11-2
13Hull City2-01-2
14Preston North End2-00-0
15Blackburn Rovers0-02-0
16Stoke City0-02-1
18Wigan Athletic2-10-1
19Queens Park Rangers2-01-1
20Reading2-11-2
21Millwall0-12-1
22Rotherham United6-11-0
23Bolton Wanderers4-01-0
24Ipswich Town2-01-1
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Aston Villa vs Derby Stats

  • Derby lost both of their Championship meetings with Aston Villa this season by an aggregate score of 0-7 (0-3 home, 0-4 away).
  • Aston Villa have won six of their last nine matches against Derby (all in league competition), losing just once in this run, a 0-2 defeat in December 2017.
  • The last Championship playoff final to see both sides score was West Ham’s 2-1 win over Blackpool back in 2012 – each of the last six has seen at least one side fail to find the back of the net.
  • This is only the sixth second-tier play-off final between the teams finishing 5th and 6th in the division that season and the first since 2005, when West Ham won 1-0 against Preston.
  • Aston Villa are the first side to reach back-to-back playoff finals in the second tier since West Ham in 2004 (runners up) and 2005 (winners). The last side to lose consecutive playoff finals at this level was Leicester City in 1992 and 1993.
  • Derby are participating in their fourth second-tier play-off final, losing two (1994 and 2014) and winning one (2007) of their previous three.
  • Only Middlesbrough, Newcastle United, Sunderland and Swindon Town have ever lost three straight games at Wembley without scoring – Aston Villa have lost 0-4 to Arsenal and 0-1 to Fulham in their last two games there.
  • Aston Villa striker Tammy Abraham has scored four Championship goals (including play-offs) against Derby County – he has only netted more against Nottingham Forest (5).
  • Aston Villa boss Dean Smith will be taking charge of his first playoff final as a manager – he appeared in two such matches as a player, ending on the losing side for Leyton Orient in both 1999 (v Scunthorpe) and 2001 (v Blackpool) in fourth tier matches.
  • Harry Wilson has been involved in eight goals in his last 10 Championship matches for Derby (6 goals, 2 assists – including play-offs), and has scored 16 Championship goals this season – seven more than any other Rams player.
  • Should Derby win promotion, their tally of 74 points in the regular season would be the fewest by a side promoted to the Premier League since Crystal Palace in 2012-13 (72 points).
  • Excluding the goalless 2017 final between Huddersfield and Reading, 14 of the last 15 occasions a team has scored first in a second-tier play-off final has seen them go on to win promotion, with the exception being Cardiff City against Blackpool in 2010 (lost 2-3).
  • The two players to win the most fouls in the Championship this season (including play-offs) are Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish (158) and Derby’s Harry Wilson (113).

How we calculate our stats

Our stats are based on games this season. Games played this season: 96
(48 by Aston Villa) and (48 by Derby)

Goals

Aston Villa badge Derby badge
65%
BTTS (%)
58%
98%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
92%
83%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
79%
60%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
48%
33%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
27%
1.75
Average Goals For
1.52
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
25%
Cleansheet (%)
23%
13%
Failed to Score (%)
27%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
71%
BTTS (%)
54%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
88%
92%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
79%
75%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
46%
46%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
25%
2.17
Average Goals For
1.67
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
25%
Cleansheet (%)
33%
4%
Failed to Score (%)
25%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
58%
BTTS (%)
63%
96%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
96%
75%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
79%
46%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
50%
21%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
29%
1.33
Average Goals For
1.38
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
25%
Cleansheet (%)
13%
21%
Failed to Score (%)
29%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
90%
BTTS (%)
50%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
90%
100%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
70%
50%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
50%
40%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
20%
1.6
Average Goals For
1.3
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
10%
Cleansheet (%)
30%
0%
Failed to Score (%)
30%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
70%
BTTS (%)
60%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
90%
90%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
90%
60%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
60%
50%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
30%
2.4
Average Goals For
1.6
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
30%
Cleansheet (%)
30%
0%
Failed to Score (%)
20%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
70%
BTTS (%)
80%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
100%
90%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
80%
60%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
60%
20%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
10%
1.5
Average Goals For
1.4
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
20%
Cleansheet (%)
0%
10%
Failed to Score (%)
20%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
100%
BTTS (%)
60%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
100%
100%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
100%
60%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
60%
60%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
20%
2
Average Goals For
1.6
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
0%
Cleansheet (%)
40%
0%
Failed to Score (%)
0%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
80%
BTTS (%)
40%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
80%
100%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
80%
60%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
40%
40%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
40%
1.8
Average Goals For
1.6
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1
20%
Cleansheet (%)
60%
0%
Failed to Score (%)
20%
Aston Villa badge Derby badge
100%
BTTS (%)
60%
100%
Over 0.5 Goals (%)
100%
100%
Over 1.5 Goals (%)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 Goals (%)
60%
40%
Over 3.5 Goals (%)
0%
1.4
Average Goals For
1
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
0%
Cleansheet (%)
0%
0%
Failed to Score (%)
40%

Goalscorers

Aston Villa badge Derby badge
Top Goalscorers
Tammy Abraham
25
15
Harry Wilson
Jonathan Kodjia
9
9
Martyn Waghorn
Conor Hourihane
7
8
Mason Mount
First Goalscorers
Tammy Abraham
9
4
Harry Wilson
Jonathan Kodjia
3
4
Martyn Waghorn
Jack Grealish
3
3
Jack Marriott

Cards & Corners

Aston Villa badge Derby badge
2
Average Cards For
2
Player Cards
John McGinn
14
9
Bradley Johnson
Alan Hutton
8
9
Harry Wilson
Conor Hourihane
6
8
Duane Holmes
6
Average Corners For
5
5
Average Corners Against
5

Goal Margins

Aston Villa badge Derby badge
Total1234+
W9704
L7102
Total1234+
W9803
L6303
Home1234+
W6302
L3100
Home1234+
W4702
L1002
Away1234+
W3402
L4002
Away1234+
W5101
L5301

Goal Timings

Aston Villa badge Derby badge

First Half

0-15'
0-15'
16-30'
16-30'
31-45'
31-45'

Second Half

46-60'
46-60'
61-75'
61-75'
76-90'
76-90'
Aston Villa badge Derby badge

Home First Half

0-15'
0-15'
16-30'
16-30'
31-45'
31-45'

Home Second Half

46-60'
46-60'
61-75'
61-75'
76-90'
76-90'
Aston Villa badge Derby badge

Away First Half

0-15'
0-15'
16-30'
16-30'
31-45'
31-45'

Away Second Half

46-60'
46-60'
61-75'
61-75'
76-90'
76-90'
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BookieHome WinDrawAway WinOffer
6/5 11/5 12/5
6/5 23/10 12/5
23/20 12/5 23/10
11/10 23/10 11/5
BookieYesNoOffer
8/11 1/1
8/11 1/1
3/4 19/20
3/4 19/20
BookieHome & YesAway & YesOffer
7/2 11/2
100/30 11/2
7/2 5/1
7/2 5/1
BookieUnder 0.5Over 0.5Under 1.5Over 1.5Under 2.5Over 2.5Under 3.5Over 3.5Under 4.5Over 4.5Under 5.5Over 5.5Under 6.5Over 6.5Under 7.5Over 7.5Under 8.5Over 8.5Under 9.5Over 9.5Offer
17/2 1/14 5/2 3/10 4/5 1/1 3/10 5/2 1/9 11/2 1/33 14/1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
15/2 1/25 23/10 2/7 4/5 10/11 30/100 11/5 1/10 19/4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7/1 1/20 23/10 2/7 3/4 19/20 1/4 13/5 1/18 13/2 1/200 12/1 1/1000 25/1 1/1000 80/1 1/1000 100/1 1/1000 100/1
7/1 1/20 23/10 2/7 3/4 19/20 1/4 13/5 1/18 13/2 1/200 12/1 1/1000 25/1 1/1000 80/1 1/1000 100/1 1/1000 100/1
Aston Villa badge
0
Derby badge
0
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BookieHome -1Away +1Home -2Away +2Home -3Away +3Away -1Home +1Away -2Home +2Offer
3/1 7/10 8/1 2/11 22/1 1/20 6/1 1/3 18/1 1/12
3/1 7/10 15/2 2/9 16/1 1/20 13/2 30/100 14/1 1/14
10/3 4/7 9/1 1/7 N/A N/A 11/2 3/10 14/1 1/16
10/3 4/7 9/1 1/7 N/A N/A 11/2 3/10 14/1 1/16
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