With the end of the Primera Division season drawing nearer, 12th placed Real Garcilaso host 11th placed Comerciantes Unidos at the Estadio Inca this Tuesday. Our free betting tips suggest that there won’t be many goals in this match.
Real Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews
Reason For Real Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos Betting Tips
Real Garcilaso are 12th placed coming towards the closing stages of the Clausura phase, neither at immediate threat from relegation nor too hopeful of a 5th-7th placed finish for Copa Sudamericana first stage qualification. Though they are just three points behind Juan Aurich and 7th place, four other teams stand between them and said qualification, teams who have in every case been more consistent in the past weeks. Garcilaso have, admittedly, had a series of difficult fixtures against (then) league leaders Universitario, 3rd placed Sport Huancayo and 2015 champions Melgar, ending with 4-1, 3-0 and 2-1 defeats respectively. Last weekend’s 3-0 defeat away to Deportivo Municipal means they come into this having taken just three points from their last five matches.
Comerciantes Unidos have been struggling around the lower half of the table for most of the year since their promotion to the Primera Division in 2015. Unidos are about where they expected to be for their first season in the top flight, with their current form (W2 D2 L2 from their last 6) being a decent reflection of their low mid-table position. Unidos have taken four points from their last two matches, with a 1-0 win against playoff pushing Deportivo Municipal and a 0-0 draw to mid-table side Union Comercio being two decent home performances for the side. Thanks to these four points they have almost certainly confirmed top flight football for another season – Unidos stand eight points above Defensor La Bocana and the relegation zone with just three matches remaining.
Home advantage usually plays a very strong influence on results in the Peruvian Primera Division, due to the widely varying climates and altitudes, and this fixture is a prime example of the case. Real Garcilaso, despite being one of the weaker teams in the division, have won or drawn in 77% of their fixtures at home in 2016 (W7 D3 L3), taking an average of 1.85 points per game. As the travelling side, Comerciantes Unidos have consistently shown that they are not capable of adjusting to change, taking just four points from thirteen away matches in 2016 (D4 L9), and they come into this match off the back of consecutive back-to-back away defeats.
Combining the analysis above with the statistics below, we expect Real Garcilaso to win at 8/11 to be a safe bet and Real Garcilaso to win 1-0 at 5/1 with bet365 to be a top value correct score bet for this match.
Head to Head
Comerciantes Unidos won 1-0 at home in the reverse fixture from earlier in 2016.
Real Garcilaso Team News
Real Garcilaso defender Santillan returns from suspension this match after missing last weekend's 3-0 defeat away to Deportivo Municipal. Midfielder Carlos Beltran remained on the bench in the same fixture since Garcilaso's 3-0 defeat away to Sport Huancayo a few matchday's back.
Comerciantes Unidos Team News
Comerciantes Unidos will be without striker Wilfido Rivas (5 goals in 22 appearances) as he serves the 3rd of his three match suspension for his straight red card in the 3-2 defeat away to Melgar last Wednesday. Striker Carlos Perez (8 goals in 24 appearances) stands in to replace him.
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Real Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos Stats
Real Garcilaso have earnt 73% of their points this season at home (W7 D3 L3). Comerciantes Unidos have not won a single match away from home all season (W0 D4 L9). 62% of Real Garcilaso’s home and 69% of Unidos’ away matches had under 2.5 goals scored.