Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Picks, Predictions and Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Picks, Predictions and Betting Tips for this week’s battle at Arrowhead Stadium. Will Lamar Jackson lead the Ravens to their 4th straight victory? Or will the Chiefs’ offense be too much for Baltimore to handle? Read on for all of our free NFL tips!
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Predictions
Please check your betslip matches the predictions shown, as handicaps, lines and totals can change.
Reason for Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Betting tips
The AFC playoff race is continuing to heat up as plenty of matchups this weekend look to have a huge effect on the playoff picture. Kansas City hosting the Ravens is certainly one of them, as the Ravens look to hold onto the second Wild Card spot while the Chiefs look to fight for a 1st round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC portion of the playoffs.
Kansas City comes into this one after putting up a 40 spot on the Raiders’ defense this past week. QB Patrick Mahomes was his usual self, tossing 4 TDs and leading the team in rushing. But there were plenty of problems with the Kansas City defense as they gave up 33 to a horrible Raiders’ team. Chiefs’ fans are hoping S Eric Berry can return this week to bolster their struggling defense.
We also have to mention the biggest news of the week, which was the Chiefs releasing star RB Kareem Hunt after a video surfaced of him assaulting a female. The Chiefs’ front office responded with dropping Hunt from the roster as they felt it was morally the right thing to do, and we will not discuss the morals of it but rather the effect it has on the Kansas City Chiefs’ football team. Hunt is an all-star at the running back position and Kansas City will certainly miss his contributions to not only the running game but also the passing game. It is a monumental loss for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and now the backfield will be led by RB Spencer Ware.
The Ravens also have some drama coming into this weekend but its regarding the quarterback position. It seems like QB Lamar Jackson will start this weekend but it will be interesting to see if this decision changes if QB Joe Flacco returns to health throughout the week. Last week Jackson did fine for the Ravens, as his dynamic running ability led Baltimore to a win over the Falcons. The quarterback racked up 75 yards on 17 carries and helped dominate time of possession for the Ravens by completing a couple of short passes on 3rd downs. But to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense, Jackson will have to limit turning the ball over and also must complete some throws down the field to keep the defense honest.
After looking over this contest, our top play is going to be the under on the points total. With Lamar Jackson likely to start, the Ravens will lean heavily on the run which is something the Chiefs are the worst in the NFL at defending according to DVOA. In both of Jackson’s starts, the Ravens’ dominated the time of possession as they kept the clock moving with their ground-first offensive scheme. They will look to do the same this weekend in order to keep Kansas City’s offense off the field and it doesn’t hurt to mention that Baltimore’s defense has been great this season and should be able to slow down a Chiefs’ offense that just lost their star running back. The Ravens won’t light up the scoreboard with their one-dimensional attack and their defense should prevent the Chiefs doing the same.
For the points total, we like the Ravens to cover given that we think possessions will be pretty limited. The Ravens are going to want to milk the clock down as much as possible with their running game, and we think this strategy will be successful given that the Raiders racked up over 170 yards on the ground against Kansas City last week. Baltimore should keep the chains the moving via the ground game and it helps that K Justin Tucker is very reliable to put points up on the board once Baltimore gets within the opponents’ 35-yard line. On the other side, the Ravens’ defense is ranked 5th against the run and pass according to DVOA and should be able to keep the cap on a Chiefs’ offense that just lost one of their most explosive weapons. Baltimore should be able to keep this one within a touchdown.
Head to head
- Baltimore has the better straight-up record in the last 9 meetings between these two sides at 5-4 SU, but Kansas City has the better ATS record in that same span at 5-4 ATS.
- The O/U is 5-4 in these past 9 matchups with the average combined score totaling around 40 points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Stats
- Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games, but 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road games.
- The total has gone under in 7 of Baltimore’s last 10 games.
- Kansas City is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games, but just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 9 of Kansas City’s last 10 home games.
Kansas City Chiefs Team News
S Eric Berry (heel), LB Anthony Hitchens (quad), and WR Sammy Watkins (foot) are all listed as questionable.
Baltimore Ravens Team News
It is uncertain whether QB Lamar Jackson or QB Joe Flacco will start this weekend, but after their last game HC John Harbaugh said Jackson has “done enough to keep the job,” so it seems Baltimore will either roll with Jackson or use him heavily along QB Joe Flacco.
QB Joe Flacco (hip), S Tony Jefferson (ankle), G James Hurst (back), G Alex Lewis (shoulder), and LB Tim Williams (ankle) are all listed as questionable.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Predictions
Please check your betslip carefully before placing a bet, handicaps, lines and totals can change!